We looked at the Forex pair USDINR about a month ago in this video - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdxg32iyu8o & we spoke of the recent up-trend, where it began & the support zones to look out for.
Since then we've seen the pair in a low volume sideways/stagnant phase, during which it touched exactly one of the support levels that we'd indicated in our previous video at 62.15. The older support zone, indicated above & also mentioned in the previous video, held well & has since changed. The new support zone for the Forex pair lies from 60.8 to 58.1. The reason this is a zone is because there are a number of important support variables that we see in this area. Resistances lie at 62.15, 64.85, 65.1 & a major resistance at 69.13.
We expect to see a bounce from the present levels as the new support zone, mentioned above and marked on the chart also above, is expected to hold very well. If the pair enters into this new support zone or breaches it traders/investors should thin our their positions or even exit the pair as it will turn bearish. As of now we still see the pair to be bullish i.e. the US Dollar to gain over the Indian Rupee.
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Forex - USD/INR the new up move
The USD/INR currency pair remained sideways for the last 12 months. Within this sideways zone, from April to May, it attempted to begin a new down trend but failed to breach the critical support at 53 & bounced back from 53.5 to signal a new up-trend.
The new upward move began at a close above 54.95 in the month of May. Important resistances at 56.9 & 58.5 have been breached successfully & quickly. Since the up-move has been quick without any consolidation so far, the stop-loss for this move still remains at 53 but we’ll see this changing rapidly over the coming weeks. The pair is in an upward trend with supports at previously breached resistances & as listed below.
Supports – 56.9, 55.45, 53
Resistance – 58.5
We might see a little consolidation over the coming weeks & then again a continuation of the uptrend.
Crude Oil has spent the last 18 months in no man's land, after topping out in early 2012. During the past 6 months the commodity has been showing signs of bottoming out, it has also attempted to start an uptrend at 4947. In the end the trend failed to materialize & dipped to breach an important support at 4925 with a close of 4844 on the 15th of April 2013, it is now on a down trend.The intermediate trend in downwards, so traders can go short on the commodity. The lower supports as of now are 4654 & 4925 (which was previously violated). Resistances - a minor resistance at 5080 & major resistances at 5235 and 5517 for now.
In the long term Crude Oil is still shows signs of bottoming out, but the bottom is so far volatile & on an intermediate down trend. This tells us to be cautious & to stay out of investing in Crude until the trend reverses with a proper base formation or until the breach of an important resistance significantly.