The primary Indian indices Nifty & Sensex have headed lower & lower over the past 11 months & with the budget looming around the corner, investor expectations are high & so are their fears. So what better a time to take a look at the future prospects of the primary market indices.

Let's take a short look at how the Nifty got to where it is now. The indices bottomed in 2009 followed by a rally & then were stuck in a dragged out sideways zone for three years, from January 2011 to January 2014 (as marked in the Monthly chart at the bottom of this post). Followed by an enthusiastic bull run throughout 2014, with the Nifty touching life-time highs of 9100. But soon after failing to move above a critical resistance of 8997 in January 2015, it began to weaken. Though not yet a bear signal, it did show us that the market might weaken or go sideways. This however changed over the next six months.& finally during the first week of July 2015 the market did signal an end of the bull run, as marked in the weekly chart above.

Bank of India is going through it's sixth anniversary of being an anti-investor stock. But you do still hear Indian investors holding & enquiring about the stock. This is because there's a perception in the country's investors that banking stocks & banks in India are a safe bet. Though this is not entirely false in the historical context that banks & their deposits have been protected in the country. But from an investment point of view, this is simply similar to putting your money under a mattress or inside a shoe & forgetting about it, this generates no returns.

The stock has been on a down trend since 2011 & this can be easily spotted on the weekly chart below as illustrated. The stock did show a false trend (as marked in the chart below) during early 2014, while also indicating a failure in trend immediately hence any up move was set to be unstable & fail.

But as with any falling stock it tickles an investors curiosity, as to when it will be an opportunity worthy of profiting from. The following are the supports & resistances on the stock (also marked in the daily chart above) :

Resistances : 157, 140, 118, 107
Supports : 91

The stock has major resistances at 157 & 140, whereas immediate minor resistances at 118 & 107. As of now there seems to be no promising scenario of a price improvement in the stock. The charts show no base formation hence any sudden moves will result in a reversal soon. The supports for the stock are also weak, with a support at 91 which only offers short term respite. From an investor perspective the stock is in a large bear move languishing at it's prices of 2005 & also showing no signs so far of stopping.

R3 - 158.5
R2 - 155.5
R1 - 151
S1 - 147
S2 - 146.5
S3 - 136

R3 - 253
R2 - 249.5
R1 - 241.5
S1 - 236.5
S2 - 235.5
S3 - 228

S3 - 679.5
S2 - 658
S1 - 650

R1 - 643.5
R2 - 629
R3 - 623

Poster by: Neha Gupta

Over the last 2 to 3 weeks nifty seemed to be finding resistance at 8200 and was not able to cross these levels. About three weeks ago I had discussed the Nifty's long term charts and talked about the many important levels to watch, if the Nifty intends to correct, and this is happening right now. If you'd like to read more about my views on the Nifty's long term moves and various supports and resistances along with new targets you can refer to the previous blog "Modi-fying The Indian Economy & Markets at 8000 " here.

Today I'm discussing the 60 min chart of the Nifty & in this chart I will discuss the moves on the Nifty in respect to the shorter term. As you can see in the chart the nifty is unable to move beyond 8200, but also it doesn't seems to be falling too much either so the market has entered a stagnation phase hence there is also the confusion of the further moves.