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Market Indices Nifty & Sensex Before the Budget

22/2/2016

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Nifty Weekly Candlesticks Chart
The primary Indian indices Nifty & Sensex have headed lower & lower over the past 11 months & with the budget looming around the corner, investor expectations are high & so are their fears. So what better a time to take a look at the future prospects of the primary market indices.

Let's take a short look at how the Nifty got to where it is now. The indices bottomed in 2009 followed by a rally & then were stuck in a dragged out sideways zone for three years, from January 2011 to January 2014 (as marked in the Monthly chart at the bottom of this post). Followed by an enthusiastic bull run throughout 2014, with the Nifty touching life-time highs of 9100. But soon after failing to move above a critical resistance of 8997 in January 2015, it began to weaken. Though not yet a bear signal, it did show us that the market might weaken or go sideways. This however changed over the next six months.& finally during the first week of July 2015 the market did signal an end of the bull run, as marked in the weekly chart above.
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The Nifty has since been in a bear phase for the last 11 months & is showing no respite yet for the bulls, even after seeing the Nifty loose 2000 points from it's life-time highs. We see the Nifty heading towards it's next support at 6665 & if the market goes below this we will see it head towards a further stronger support at 6200. The probability of the indices going below 6200 is very unlikely, as the 3 year sideways price action (as indicated in the monthly chart) has established a very strong base for the markets, breaking such a price level would require catastrophic global events. It would be wise of investors to look for indications of base formation & bottoming around 6200, for profitable long term investment opportunities.

Long term supports & resistances for investors (also marked on the weekly chart above) :
Supports - 6665 & 6200
Resistances - 7441, 8329-8416 (zone), 8892

Short term supports & resistances for traders (also market on the daily chart below) :
Supports - 7150, 7077, 6869
Resistances - 7510, 7363, 7260

Nifty Daily Candlesticks Chart
Nifty Monthly Candlesticks Chart
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Is Bank of India continuing its anti-investor run?

11/2/2016

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Bank of India is going through it's sixth anniversary of being an anti-investor stock. But you do still hear Indian investors holding & enquiring about the stock. This is because there's a perception in the country's investors that banking stocks & banks in India are a safe bet. Though this is not entirely false in the historical context that banks & their deposits have been protected in the country. But from an investment point of view, this is simply similar to putting your money under a mattress or inside a shoe & forgetting about it, this generates no returns.

The stock has been on a down trend since 2011 & this can be easily spotted on the weekly chart below as illustrated. The stock did show a false trend (as marked in the chart below) during early 2014, while also indicating a failure in trend immediately hence any up move was set to be unstable & fail.

But as with any falling stock it tickles an investors curiosity, as to when it will be an opportunity worthy of profiting from. The following are the supports & resistances on the stock (also marked in the daily chart above) :

Resistances : 157, 140, 118, 107
Supports : 91

The stock has major resistances at 157 & 140, whereas immediate minor resistances at 118 & 107. As of now there seems to be no promising scenario of a price improvement in the stock. The charts show no base formation hence any sudden moves will result in a reversal soon. The supports for the stock are also weak, with a support at 91 which only offers short term respite. From an investor perspective the stock is in a large bear move languishing at it's prices of 2005 & also showing no signs so far of stopping.
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NTPC short term & long term resistances & supports

23/3/2015

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NTPC Daily Candlestick Chart

NTPC Daily chandlestick chart

Short-Term S&R prices

R3 - 158.5
R2 - 155.5
R1 - 151
S1 - 147
S2 - 146.5
S3 - 136

Long-Term Supports & Resistances Chart

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BHEL short term & long term supports & resistances

23/3/2015

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BHEL Daily Candlestick Chart

BHEL daily candlestick chart

Short-term S&R Prices

R3 - 253
R2 - 249.5
R1 - 241.5
S1 - 236.5
S2 - 235.5
S3 - 228

Long-Term Supports & Resistances Chart

BHEL Long Term Price LInes and Daily Candles
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Wipro Biggest Gainer on Nifty Resistance & Support

22/3/2015

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Wipro Daily Candles
S3 - 679.5
S2 - 658
S1 - 650

R1 - 643.5
R2 - 629
R3 - 623
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Nifty Futures - The short term to medium term outlook

3/10/2014

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Poster by: Neha Gupta
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Over the last 2 to 3 weeks nifty seemed to be finding resistance at 8200 and was not able to cross these levels. About three weeks ago I had discussed the Nifty's long term charts and talked about the many important levels to watch, if the Nifty intends to correct, and this is happening right now. If you'd like to read more about my views on the Nifty's long term moves and various supports and resistances along with new targets you can refer to the previous blog "Modi-fying The Indian Economy & Markets at 8000 " here.

Today I'm discussing the 60 min chart of the Nifty & in this chart I will discuss the moves on the Nifty in respect to the shorter term. As you can see in the chart the nifty is unable to move beyond 8200, but also it doesn't seems to be falling too much either so the market has entered a stagnation phase hence there is also the confusion of the further moves.
Now sooner or later every market has to break this sideways range. I am not predicting a downward movement of the market yet but if we are going to see more significant upward moves in the future, Nifty has to correct a little else it will weaken.

You can refer to the chart above & notice that I have drawn four horizontals lines at different levels, in my opinion one has to watch these levels carefully to catch the short to medium term trends in this market. If the market keeps trading below the level of 8070, it will confirm that it intends to correct, but for that to happen it will also have to break below the levels of 7910 first. If it does this we can easily see the market heading towards levels of 7800 and 7700.

Also on the chart above I have drawn a line at the price level of 7666, one has to be extra attentive at this level because if the market reaches somewhere around here it will bounce back very quickly and might aim for new highs as this is a very strong support.
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