Crude oil has largely remained sideways for the last three years since topping off in 2011. The commodity has since twice attempted to break towards the high of 2011 at $114 & failed. Both the attempts to reach 114 are market on the weekly chart. The first attempt, after the dip from the high of 2011, started off with a very weak base and found heavy resistance above 102 & immediately failed with an almost vertical decline to a low of $75. Since then Crude Oil has largely remained sideways until recently in 2013. The second attempt was definitely backed-up with a much larger base, of over a year, but quickly found resistance at the important level of 101. We did see a high of 110 but the breach of 101 showed that the commodity was weakening & called for an exit.
Now Crude Oil still looks to be weak & after failing to hold the important support at 101 it's heading towards some major support levels. Supports for crude lie at 97.75, 95.8, 90.8 & 87.5. From 97.75 to 95.8 is a very important support zone, the commodity will have to hold this zone strongly to continue the up move; else we might see it slip lower quickly. Below this there are some minor supports at 90.8 & 87.5 but breaching below the support zone from 97.75-95.8 will mean that the commodity will find it very difficult to move up-wards.
Resistance levels are at 102.3, 106.6 & 110.7. The price point at 102.3 is very critical for the health of the commodity, gaining this price level & remaining above this will be detrimental to the future of Crude Oil as of now. The commodity does not only have to move above 102.3 but will also have to form a base above this for a few months, then & only then will we see it move towards much higher levels. There is also a minor resistance above this at 106.6 & a larger resistance at 110.7.
As of now Crude Oil looks to be weak & is facing strong resistance at 102.3 & will remain so until it moves and remain above it. The weakening commodity is at it's critical support zone as of now & it will be interesting to watch its price action over the coming weeks.
Click to enlarge - Crude Oil NYMEX Weekly Chart
Click to enlarge - Crude Oil NYMEX Daily Chart
Here's my opinion on Silver in US Dollars looking at Silver Continuous on COMEX & also in Indian Rupees looking at Silver 1KG 1 Month contract on MCX. I'm also looking at these two example to illustrate how correlation does not work for trading or investment. Included below are the charts, and also the details of support and resistances as seen on both the Silver contracts. Also do watch the videos below, in both English & Hindi for a more in-depth look at Silver.
We looked at Silver in April this year (linked below) & as suggested on the break of 51000 & 48500 Silver headed further downward & now is still looking weak at around 40500.
Will the down fall of silver end? Or is there more to go? - http://www.bluemetalmoney.com/4/post/2013/04/will-the-down-fall-of-silver-end-or-is-there-more-to-go.html
Now silver seems to be entering a base formation zone but it is still moving downwards. Strong long term resistances are at 54100 & 63490, minor resistances lie at 50190 & 59974. A critical support level is at 34558 & a very strong support lies at 26671. Minor support is also seen at 40370 which is just below the recent close price.
Supports – 40370, 34558, 26671
Resistances – 50190, 54100, 59974, 63490
For now Silver is continuing its downward trend and has not yet formed a base. If there is an up move, it might not sustain for a very long time, unless such an up-move is supported by a long sideways zone in the metal.