Silver INR has been struggling to turn bullish since the end of 2011 after a making a life-time high around 73000. It has since made three attempts to rally up & failed repeatedly.
Most recently the precious metal has attempted to rally, from a small base, in July 2013. This rally began at the break of 44500 which was an important resistance in the previous down-trend. Prices immediately rose vertically towards it's major resistance at 62108, but before hitting the resistance price point Silver lost ground. The commodity quickly retreated and also broke important support at 50200, hence signalling an exit & a failure of the rally. The exit was further confirmed twice again, at the break of 47500 & 45800.
The commodity has since slipped further & is at very weak support levels. Resistance for Silver (inr) are at 45373, 48410 & 59504. All three are strong resistances & major resistance lies at 59504. Support levels are at 40650 & 39365, both these levels are minor support levels & breaching these we will see the commodity slip further lower.
Silver was only able to form a minor base, the last time it attempted to rally, in July 2013. Any new attempt to rally will have to be backed up with a larger & stronger base, which it might make possible if prices hold at the present levels. Moving above & holding 45373 will be critical for this base formation for the commodity & then and only then will it be able to make a genuine effort to rally up towards higher resistances. Else we might see the precious metal slip further lower.
My video today is about the importance of placing a stop-loss & the points you will need to remember when placing a stop-loss. The video is in Hindi, follow the link to start watching.
Today's three stock picks for the medium term are as below. Do watch the videos in English or Hindi below.
Bharat Forge topped out in early 2011 & has remained in a largely bearish phase, until now. The stock has formed a large base and is showing signs of maybe turning bullish. The entry pivot, as of now, is at 244.5 & on breaching this resistance the stock will move higher. Major resistance above this lies at 283 & on crossing this significantly we might see much higher prices on the stock. Stop loss may be placed at 206.5. If the stock slips further from here without a move up & with no breach of 244.5, these pivots will change drastically and we will have to wait it out for the stock to develop a bullish bias again. But for now the stock does look stable & if an up-move begins it will only be at the pivots as mentioned above.
Supports – 206.5
Resistances – 244.5, 283
The USD/INR currency pair remained sideways for the last 12 months. Within this sideways zone, from April to May, it attempted to begin a new down trend but failed to breach the critical support at 53 & bounced back from 53.5 to signal a new up-trend.
The new upward move began at a close above 54.95 in the month of May. Important resistances at 56.9 & 58.5 have been breached successfully & quickly. Since the up-move has been quick without any consolidation so far, the stop-loss for this move still remains at 53 but we’ll see this changing rapidly over the coming weeks. The pair is in an upward trend with supports at previously breached resistances & as listed below.
Supports – 56.9, 55.45, 53
Resistance – 58.5
We might see a little consolidation over the coming weeks & then again a continuation of the uptrend.
Crude Oil has spent the last 18 months in no man's land, after topping out in early 2012. During the past 6 months the commodity has been showing signs of bottoming out, it has also attempted to start an uptrend at 4947. In the end the trend failed to materialize & dipped to breach an important support at 4925 with a close of 4844 on the 15th of April 2013, it is now on a down trend.The intermediate trend in downwards, so traders can go short on the commodity. The lower supports as of now are 4654 & 4925 (which was previously violated). Resistances - a minor resistance at 5080 & major resistances at 5235 and 5517 for now.
In the long term Crude Oil is still shows signs of bottoming out, but the bottom is so far volatile & on an intermediate down trend. This tells us to be cautious & to stay out of investing in Crude until the trend reverses with a proper base formation or until the breach of an important resistance significantly.